The Russian futurists made a prediction about the future of artificial intelligence
Over the last hundred years the mankind made a huge leap in technology. Increasingly, ideas from science fiction novels and movies about the future are becoming a reality. Artificial intelligence equal to human, called the “latest technology”, therefore it is one of the most interesting topics to futurological forecasts. To discuss issues associated with artificial intelligence, Microsoft, in partnership with the publication of “Schrodinger’s cat” organized a round table.
For discussion were invited following figures:
- Alexey Turchin is a writer and researcher of global risks related to the development of new technologies, member of the Association of futurologists, Vice-President of the Foundation “Science for life extension”;
- Peter Levich – Director of the Department of interaction science, technology and society of the Moscow technological Institute, founder of the Future Foundation;
- Michael Chernomordikov a visionary head of Department of strategic technologies of Microsoft in Russia.
Invited guests were asked to answer a series of questions related to existing technologies in the field of artificial intelligence, and the distant future. Below are some of the most interesting thoughts of professionals.
Creating artificial intelligence equal to human
“Artificial intelligence can equal human later this century, and in the next 10-20 years we will see a strong growth of related technologies,” said Alexey Turchin.
Alexey Turchin is confident that in the 21st century, the creation of artificial intelligence equal to human, it will be possible. He believes that nothing special in the man there, and we either find a reason why this cannot be done, or will do something similar. In the next decade, Turchin predicts new breakthroughs in speech recognition, robot control, including Autonomous cars, and the imitation of emotions.
Artificial intelligence learns to show emotions
“The logic of emotions is quite simple. And the machine can simulate”, – commented Alexey Turchin.
Futurists believe that artificial intelligence has learned to fake some emotions. The roundtable participants believe that until, until you create a full model of the human brain, the ability of artificial intelligence to experience emotions remains a subject of debate.
“Each of us ever doubted that simulates chatting emotions or experiencing them in reality” – thus Peter Levich hinted that forge emotions and artificial intelligence.
Who is responsible for decisions made by artificial intelligence?
In response to this question futurists unanimously propose not to transfer the responsibility for solving artificial intelligence on the technologies themselves. Ultimately they are responsible for those who created them.
“People are responsible for all the decisions and all the results”, – said Mikhail Chernomordikov.
Also Michael Chernomordikov drew attention to the fact that the rules related to the development of artificial intelligence, are being formed today: work together on this big companies like Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Apple and IBM. Mankind will have to develop rules for the creation of artificial intelligence to ethical issues was decided the safest possible way.
“Ethical norms will be developed rather by a horizontal evolutionary mechanisms,” said Peter Levich, indicating that prohibitive measures will not help to solve all new problems.
Strong artificial intelligence, he can figure out what to do next
Alexei Turchin believes that the exponential growth in processor performance will continue at least in the next 10-20 years.
“This should be enough to create an artificial intelligence equal to human, and he himself can figure out what to do next. Well, in reserve we have the transition to quantum computers, spintronic, photonic computers, nanotubes, cooled to low temperatures, biological systems and so on”, – says Alexey Turchin.
Does the AI human labor unnecessary?
“The farther, the more professions is under threat of extinction due to the emergence of robots and artificial intelligence. But this does not mean that mankind will become nothing else to do. Because the disappearing professions will be dozens of new” – experts say.
Futurists believe that to be calm: some jobs will become unnecessary, but instead they will have other jobs.
“Every time we give something to the machines, we are getting smarter machines enable us to solve more complex problems. But creativity, science, goal setting, communication, in the end, we like it, why should we give it to the car?”, asked Peter Levich.
“Historically, technology creates more jobs than it destroys and there is no reason to believe that in the case of AI will be different”, – said Mikhail Chernomordikov.
How dangerous is a creation of the overmind?
“Artificial intelligence is a tool we ourselves decide how we are going to use it,” says Michael Chernomordikov.
Alexei Turchin believes that the question is different: artificial intelligence is a threat, if it is uncontrolled, but without technology humanity has no chance and it – there. Therefore, in the future we have to solve the task of monitoring the AI. Peter Levich, in turn, suggested that strong artificial intelligence will not be a big risk. He is confident that the future of digital centaurs – the Union of man and machine.
What is most afraid of futurists?
Alexei Turchin warns that in any case it is impossible to prevent the development of viruses with artificial intelligence. Peter Levich’s greatest fear is that someone is using artificial intelligence technology, will seek to restrict the will of the people and to deprive them of the ability to make choices, even foolish or emotional.
Michael Chernomordikov afraid that the ethical aspects of artificial intelligence will be a lot of it professionals:
“We need a broader, deeper involvement of representatives of different countries in developing these systems. It industry should not dictate values and moral principles of the technological future,” said Michael Chernomordikov.
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